Isaac Rischall
Abstract
This paper analyzes the outcomes of single mothers who move. I compare these outcomes to the ones they would expect to experience had they stayed in their native location. Examining the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), I find that the earnings of single mother movers decline sharply relative to stayers in the years before moving. Based on this evidence, I propose a model in which individuals migrate in order to break away from persistent negative earnings shocks. Results indicate that not accounting for the negative earnings shocks understates the effects of migration on earnings and income. Estimation of the model is performed by the Estimation/Classification (EC)-algorithm. This estimator accounts for selection into migration by dividing individuals into groups and estimating the parameters for each group. The EC-algorithm classifies single mothers as either wage earners or benefit receivers. On average, the wage earner migrants increase their expected earnings and income nineteen percent by migrating. The migration behavior of these women changes little with changes in overall benefit levels. Of the women who primarily receive benefits, most change their earnings and income outcomes little by migrating. However, a small portion increase income by moving to states with much higher benefit levels than their initial location.